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ABSTRACT<br/>Malaria remains a major global health burden, causing hundreds of thousands deaths annually,<br/>especially in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in December 2019, a novel pneumonia-like condition termed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with several clinical, epidemiological, and<br/>biological parallels to malaria, was reported in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 pandemic led to inaccessibility to healthcare services due to societal measures which subsequently could increase<br/>malaria morbidities, comorbidities with COVID-19 and mortalities. This study therefore aimed<br/>at investigating the effects of city lockdowns and chemotherapeutic impacts on the dynamical<br/>system of human and mosquito populations. The percentage increase in malaria mortalities as<br/>a result of inaccessibility to healthcare services was also quantified. Firstly, the basic reproduction number was computed. The stability of the system is analyzed for the existence of<br/>the disease-free and endemic equilibria points. We established that the disease-free equilibrium<br/>point is locally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number, R0 < 1 and the disease<br/>always dies out. For R0 > 1 the disease-free equilibrium becomes unstable and the disease<br/>continues to persist in the population. Furthermore, the parameters most responsible for the<br/>disease transmission in the populations with respect to R0 by sensitivity analysis showed that<br/>deaths due to malaria increased by 10% in endemic malaria countries during lockdown (i.e year<br/>2020 alone). This suggests that more concerted efforts are required to concurrently monitor the<br/>two diseases. Notably, malaria and COVID-19 screening and testing of suspected or confirmed<br/>COVID-19 patients could be done simultaneously to avoid misdiagnosis and enable easy management. Maintaining the most critical prevention activities, long-term suppression intervention<br/>and accessibility to healthcare services for malaria during lockdowns could substantially reduce<br/>the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria.<br/>Keyword: mathematical model, Lockdown, Malaria, COVID-19, Stability |
