SOCIETAL AND PUBLIC HEALTH MEASURES AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF SARS-COV-2 ON THE TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF MALARIA: A MATHEMATICAL MODELLING APPROACH
Material type:
TextPublisher: Ibafo Computer Science and Mathematics 2022Edition: Dr. A. A.ONIFADEDescription: x;37pgsSubject(s): Applied Science -- Computer Science and MathematicsSummary: ABSTRACT
Malaria remains a major global health burden, causing hundreds of thousands deaths annually,
especially in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in December 2019, a novel pneumonia-like condition termed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with several clinical, epidemiological, and
biological parallels to malaria, was reported in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 pandemic led to inaccessibility to healthcare services due to societal measures which subsequently could increase
malaria morbidities, comorbidities with COVID-19 and mortalities. This study therefore aimed
at investigating the effects of city lockdowns and chemotherapeutic impacts on the dynamical
system of human and mosquito populations. The percentage increase in malaria mortalities as
a result of inaccessibility to healthcare services was also quantified. Firstly, the basic reproduction number was computed. The stability of the system is analyzed for the existence of
the disease-free and endemic equilibria points. We established that the disease-free equilibrium
point is locally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number, R0 < 1 and the disease
always dies out. For R0 > 1 the disease-free equilibrium becomes unstable and the disease
continues to persist in the population. Furthermore, the parameters most responsible for the
disease transmission in the populations with respect to R0 by sensitivity analysis showed that
deaths due to malaria increased by 10% in endemic malaria countries during lockdown (i.e year
2020 alone). This suggests that more concerted efforts are required to concurrently monitor the
two diseases. Notably, malaria and COVID-19 screening and testing of suspected or confirmed
COVID-19 patients could be done simultaneously to avoid misdiagnosis and enable easy management. Maintaining the most critical prevention activities, long-term suppression intervention
and accessibility to healthcare services for malaria during lockdowns could substantially reduce
the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria.
Keyword: mathematical model, Lockdown, Malaria, COVID-19, Stability
| Current location | Call number | Copy number | Status | Date due | Barcode | Item holds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Library | 1 | Not for loan | 19010303006 |
ABSTRACT
Malaria remains a major global health burden, causing hundreds of thousands deaths annually,
especially in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in December 2019, a novel pneumonia-like condition termed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) with several clinical, epidemiological, and
biological parallels to malaria, was reported in Wuhan, China. COVID-19 pandemic led to inaccessibility to healthcare services due to societal measures which subsequently could increase
malaria morbidities, comorbidities with COVID-19 and mortalities. This study therefore aimed
at investigating the effects of city lockdowns and chemotherapeutic impacts on the dynamical
system of human and mosquito populations. The percentage increase in malaria mortalities as
a result of inaccessibility to healthcare services was also quantified. Firstly, the basic reproduction number was computed. The stability of the system is analyzed for the existence of
the disease-free and endemic equilibria points. We established that the disease-free equilibrium
point is locally asymptotically stable when the reproduction number, R0 < 1 and the disease
always dies out. For R0 > 1 the disease-free equilibrium becomes unstable and the disease
continues to persist in the population. Furthermore, the parameters most responsible for the
disease transmission in the populations with respect to R0 by sensitivity analysis showed that
deaths due to malaria increased by 10% in endemic malaria countries during lockdown (i.e year
2020 alone). This suggests that more concerted efforts are required to concurrently monitor the
two diseases. Notably, malaria and COVID-19 screening and testing of suspected or confirmed
COVID-19 patients could be done simultaneously to avoid misdiagnosis and enable easy management. Maintaining the most critical prevention activities, long-term suppression intervention
and accessibility to healthcare services for malaria during lockdowns could substantially reduce
the overall impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on malaria.
Keyword: mathematical model, Lockdown, Malaria, COVID-19, Stability
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